Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Mbeki blasts ANC comrades

04 April 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the scathing letter from former President Thabo Mbeki to the leadership and Members of Parliament of the African National Congress.

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We also note the rising levels of unease in South Africa, as measured by the Policy Uncertainty Index, and the latest surprisingly large interest rate hike by the South African Reserve Bank.

We close with an analysis of the most recent foreign policy moves by China, as well as the latest developments in Israel.

Risk Alert | Whose state is it anyway?

27 March 2023 - In this week’s exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with an assessment of the broader significance of the alleged assassination of Cloete Murray.

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We also examine the latest revisions to South Africa’s expected GDP growth rate for 2023, and the impact of the arrest warrant issued for Vladimir Putin on South African foreign policy.

We close with a review of the latest interest rate changes by selected central banks, in the context of some shaky financial institutions.

Risk Alert | ANC launches 2024 campaign

20 March 2023 - In this week’s exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the ANC’s 2024 general election campaign kick-off, in what should be the hotly contested province of KwaZulu-Natal.

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We also argue that South Africa is now trending in the direction of a failed state, as the mining sector continues to deteriorate, and the economy lingers in the doldrums.

We close with a look at how the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia — facilitated by China — will impact the tussle between China and the United States for influence in the Middle East.

Risk Alert | A ‘meaningless’ reshuffle

13 March 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss last week’s Cabinet reshuffle, which was largely met with derision.

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We also unpack the latest economic indicators, and South Africa’s tense labour relations.

In closing, we look at S&P Global’s downgraded outlook on South Africa’s sovereign credit rating, and the potential global consequences of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States.

Risk Alert | Turmoil in Tshwane

06 March 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert we we examine the latest developments in the Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality, and the wider implications for coalitions in South Africa.

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We also unpack the latest crime indicators, as well as the rising trend of private sector frustration with the government.

We then close with a look at the most recent Purchasing Managers’ Index, amidst an uncertain global monetary policy environment.

Risk Alert | A prudent budget

27 February 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert we unpack the latest National Budget presented by the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana, on 22 February 2023.

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We also look at the untimely departure of Eskom CEO, Andre de Ruyter, amid rolling electricity blackouts, as well as the implications of the adoption of the Electoral Amendment Bill (EAB).

We conclude with a look at the foreign policy ramifications of South Africa’s stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.