Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | SA backs down, marginally

24 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with a marginal shift in SA’s stance towards the US, with research funding under ongoing strain.

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We turn to Europe, where Germany is undertaking a generational shift in defence spending. Thereafter we look at a gloomy US growth outlook.

We close with an analysis of the latest interest rates moves in both SA and the US.

Risk Alert | ANC seeks tax hike to feed spending habit

17 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with a quick overview of the budget.

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We then cast a spotlight on the state of manufacturing in SA and on recent comments by the head of VW in South Africa. 

We close with a look at the escalation in diplomatic tensions between South Africa and the United States and assess the implications for the Government of National Unity.

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Risk Alert | No GNU magic in GDP numbers

10 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at South Africa’s disappointing 2024 GDP numbers, highlighting a recent World Bank report urging the government to liberalise the economy.

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We turn to the sorry state of Gauteng, which has been noticed by President Cyril Ramaphosa, as Johannesburg gears up to host the G20 Summit in November. 
 
We close with a look at the latest developments in Donald Trump’s tariff wars. 

Risk Alert | CR pulls the tiger’s tail

3 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with President Ramaphosa’s likely short-lived hopes of making a deal with the Trump administration.

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South Africa’s G20 presidency risks papering over the country’s fundamental growth issues. Thereafter we unpack the latest shifts within the GNU and look at new polling results from the Social Research Foundation.
 
We close with the results of the German elections and the challenges facing Europe’s biggest economy.

Risk Alert | Budget hits a brick wall

24 February 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the postponed budget speech and South Africa’s narrow tax base.

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We analyse the lack of imagination keeping the country in a low-growth trap. We then turn to ongoing tension between failing state services and private solutions.

We close with a look at rejigged ANC provincial structures, as well as details regarding upcoming race quotas.

Risk Alert | Trouble in the house of MK

17 February 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with leadership, management, and money troubles afflicting the uMkhonto weSizwe Party.

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We examine contradictory statements from government regarding the NHI. Thereafter we analyse the options available to the delegations and envoys that President Ramaphosa will send to Washington.
 
We close with a look at ongoing water service delivery breakdowns in Johannesburg.