Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Let the tariff wars begin

3 February 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with US President Donald Trump’s opening tariffs salvo.

Publication description

We examine whether US sanctions could be imposed on some South African political leaders and officials. Thereafter we unpack the IMF’s latest country update for South Africa along with the country’s growth prospects. 

We close with a look at the SANDF’s unfolding military disaster in the DRC.

Risk Alert | Ramaphosa drops the EWC bomb

27 January 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with an assessment of the Expropriation Act, which President Cyril Ramaphosa signed into law last Thursday.

Publication description

We discuss the Transformation Fund mooted by the minister of trade, industry and competition, Parks Tau, and review the fast-evolving relationship between the ANC and its partners in the Government of National Unity. 
 
We close with a look at the United States and the flurry of executive orders signed by Donald Trump as he takes control of government. 

Risk Alert | The US starts flexing its muscles

20 January 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the incoming Trump administration in the US and what its first moves will be.

Publication description

We examine the parlous state of provincial government finances in Gauteng. Thereafter we unpack the latest matric results.
 
We close with Germany’s ongoing domestic growth headaches amidst forthcoming political upheaval.

Risk Alert | Corroded steel

13 January 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at the causes and consequences of the closure of ArcelorMittal’s long steel plants.

Publication description

We assess President Cyril Ramaphosa’s January 8th statement on the anniversary of the ANC’s founding in 1912.

We follow with an outlook on the US and SA economies and judge the implications for the Rand. 

We then close with an update on the situation in Mozambique.

Risk Alert | The world braces for Trump 2.0

6 January 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the incoming Trump administration and geopolitical considerations for South Africa.

Publication description

We examine the ANC’s prospects in the context of underperforming municipalities. The state of Transnet, the binding constraint on economic growth, follows. 

We then unpack the immediate regional risks South Africa will face in 2025, and close with a look at China’s flagging growth prospects.
 

Risk Alert | Will the GNU stand the test?

16 December 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we provide an outlook on what to expect from 2025.

Publication description

We look at the prospects for the Government of National Unity and assess the options for the uMkhonto weSizwe Party and the Economic Freedom Fighters. 

We close with a review of the 2024 elections in Africa.