Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | How long will Cyril last?

26 September 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the declining political fortunes of President Cyril Ramaphosa. How long will he remain President, we ask?

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Meanwhile, South Africa has become a breeding ground for organised crime, we warn.

We conclude by examining the United Kingdom’s surprising change in economic policy under its new government.

Risk Alert | Eskom: a systemic risk

19 September 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explore the worsening crisis at Eskom and the systemic risk it poses to South Africa’s economy.

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We also analyse recent by-election results which show the ANC continuing to bleed support across the country.

We conclude by flagging the ongoing threat of the Expropriation Bill, which unexpectedly stalled in a parliamentary committee meeting last week.

Risk Alert | SA's shrinking economy

12 September 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explore the reasons why South Africa’s economy contracted 0.7% in the second quarter of this year.

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The emigration of skilled young people will further weaken South Africa’s already fragile tax base, we warn.

Internationally, we discuss the potential failure of the United States to reach an agreement with Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Risk Alert | Coalitions on the rocks

5 September 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the instability currently affecting South Africa’s local government coalitions.

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We also unpack new polling data which indicates the ANC may achieve 50% of the vote in the 2024 general elections.

We conclude by exploring the formidable challenges facing the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Risk Alert | SA's red-hot inflation

29 August 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we examine the drivers of South Africa’s growing inflation problem.

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Could last week’s relatively small cost of living protests escalate in the near future, we ask?

We also explore how carbon taxes and uncertainties over the future supply of natural gas could further undermine South Africa’s industrial capacity.

Risk Alert | Trouble at Luthuli House

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss two recent polls which reveal a dramatic decline in popular support for the ruling ANC.

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How will the ANC government respond to its waning popularity, we ask?

We also explore the growing fragility of the Chinese economy, and the inherent risks for South Africa.