Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | A glimmer of hope?

4 April 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we identify a small glimmer of hope on the horizon for South Africa’s ailing economy.

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What reforms will be needed to unlock growth and reduce unemployment, we ask?

Internationally, we examine whether a recession is looming in the United States, and if the European Union can contain the food security problems resulting from the war in Ukraine.

Risk Alert | SA investment: where is the money ?

28 March 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest increase in the benchmark repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank and spell out the likely effects on South Africa’s economy.

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We also flag policy own goals as the main deterrent to investment in South Africa — which investment conferences cannot fix — and advise of the rising risk of anti-constitutionalist sentiments among prominent political figures.

On the global front, we caution that the increase in the cost of agricultural inputs will cause disruptions in international food trade as well as raise the likelihood of social unrest and upheaval in parts of the globe.

Risk Alert | Between a rock and a hard place

2 March 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explain why South African businesses are caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to dealing with hostile government policy.

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We also warn of increased anti-foreigner sentiment, and its growing use as a tool of political mobilisation in South Africa.

Looking at the global economy, we discuss whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates, and also speculate on the decline of the U.S. Dollar as an international reserve currency.

Risk Alert | Is SA heading for recovery?

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explore whether the domestic economy has entered its long-awaited recovery.

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Can South Africa overcome the structural impediments to its growth, we ask?

Internationally, we look at inflation in developed markets and the unintended consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Risk Alert | Treasury uses the f-word

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight South Africa’s deteriorating fiscal position, which has been exacerbated by high government consumption and increased borrowing.

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We also unpack a warning from a senior National Treasury official, who recently said South Africa risked becoming a ‘failing state’.

Will Russia turn to China to rescue its battered economy, we ask?

Risk Alert | The Ukraine watershed

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.

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Does this mark the beginning of a new epoch in global politics, and how will the war impact South Africa?

We also look back on last week’s tabling of the National Budget, and what the Finance Minister’s speech tells us about the prospects for reform within the current administration.