Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Running out of dance moves

21 February 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explain why you should not hold your breath waiting for substantive reforms to come from the current administration.

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We also discuss the International Monetary Fund’s warning to South Africa’s banks about their growing portfolio of government debt, and the risk this poses to financial stability.

Why is Canada's Liberal government invoking emergency powers, and will this undermine Canadian democracy?

Risk Alert | Nothing ‘fundamental’ about Ramaphosa’s reforms

14 February 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explore the ramifications of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address (SONA).

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Were the policy reforms announced by the President as 'fundamental' as he portrayed in his speech, and does his Cabinet have the will and the capacity to implement these reforms?

We look abroad to the looming war between Russia and Ukraine, and explore the impact this will have on global markets and inflation.

Risk Alert | Putting the blame on foreigners

7 February 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo highlight the growing tendency towards xenophobic populism from many of South Africa’s political parties.

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ActionSA is suffering from internal tensions over the process for political appointments and concerns that its leader, Herman Mashaba, is too close to the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

On the international front, Endres and Mahlobo explore whether ongoing supply-chain disruptions may hamper the global economic recovery.

Risk Alert | Ports under pressure

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo flag the risk of South Africa’s deteriorating ports, which are now among the lowest ranked in the world.

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Can we expect further interest rate hikes from the South African Reserve Bank after last week’s rate decision, they ask?

On the global stage, Endres and Mahlobo explore how China’s looming demographic crisis may force the country to accelerate its global power ambitions.

Risk Alert | Will inflation breach the SARB’s ceiling?

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss whether inflation will breach the upper limit of the South African Reserve Bank’s target range of 3% to 6%.

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Will a new R11 billion loan from the World Bank to South Africa delay much-needed economic reforms, they ask?

On the international front, Endres and Mahlobo explore the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and ask whether Boris Johnson can survive as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Risk Alert | Whither the ANC?

17 January 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the waning fortunes of the African National Congress (ANC).

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Can the ANC survive the growing threats to its power from both the left and the right, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo also examine South Africa’s declining manufacturing output amidst ongoing supply chain and electricity constraints.