Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | The buffalo and the wild dogs

8 November 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the fallout from last week's watershed local government elections.

Publication description

Will opposition parties be able to form a united front against the ANC and the EFF, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo conclude by exploring how South Africa's new era of coalition politics will influence the run-up to the national and provincial elections in 2024.

Risk Alert | The long-awaited political realignment

1 November 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas discuss four trends that will emerge from today’s local government elections.

Publication description

Will these elections trigger the long-awaited political realignment, they ask?

Endres and Jonas also explore what Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's postponement of his inaugural Medium Term Budget Policy Statement reveals about the state of public finances.

Risk Alert | South Africa adopts indigenisation

25 October 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas flag the key risks around the Private Security Industry Regulation Amendment Act, recently signed into law by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Publication description

What are the wider implications of the state’s failure to perform its functions as seen in KwaZulu-Natal’s farmlands, they ask?

Endres and Jonas also look at how South Africa and the region will likely be impacted by the ongoing unrest in Eswatini and conclude by assessing the possible trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic into the near future.

Risk Alert | Do your Christmas shopping early

18 October 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo highlight recent declines in the SACCI Business Confidence Index to below pre-pandemic levels.

Publication description

Could high oil prices prompt the South African Reserve Bank to raise interest rates in November, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo conclude by assessing the backlogs in global supply chains and how this may affect consumers in the run-up to Christmas.

Risk Alert | South Africa’s deindustrialisation

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the terminal decline in South Africa’s industrial capacity.

Publication description

Endres and Mahlobo argue that South Africa’s deindustrialisation is a result of a policy environment that discourages investment and reduces competitiveness.

Could South Africa be negatively affected by the tapering of monetary stimulus by the United States Federal Reserve, they ask?

Risk Alert | The reform illusion

4 October 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss new CRA polling data revealing increasing pessimism about the state of the nation, and the diminishing prospects for the ANC in future elections.

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Publication description

Will President Cyril Ramaphosa’s high net favourability save the ANC, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo conclude by examining the government’s continued skirting of the need to implement the necessary reforms for South Africa’s economy to grow.