Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Housing bubble in China?

27 September 2021 - In this week’s exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas assess the looming dollar-bond default of the world’s most indebted property developer, China Evergrande, and the emerging housing bubble in China.

Publication description

How will the Chinese government respond to an Evergrande collapse, and could this trigger a broader financial crisis in China, they ask?

Endres and Jonas also explore the sharp rises in global energy prices, and the potential unintended consequences of the ‘green transition’ for the world’s major industrialised economies.

Risk Alert | Cold War reloading

20 September 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo flag the rising tensions in the Sino-Pacific region, highlighting the increasing likelihood of a “second Cold War”.

Publication description

What is the role of culture in this standoff, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo conclude by examining global fossil fuel concerns amid increasing moves towards decarbonisation, and how this will affect South Africa’s energy production and export competitiveness.

Risk Alert | Business as usual?

13 September 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas highlight the lack of reform intent in the government, as well as in the organised business community. Why has the opposition failed to gain traction in this environment, they ask? Endres and Jonas conclude by examining the possibility of a sudden change in South Africa’s gridlocked politics.

Publication description

Why has the opposition failed to gain traction in this environment, they ask?

Endres and Jonas conclude by examining the possibility of a sudden change in South Africa’s gridlocked politics.

Risk Alert | ConCourt win for democracy

06 September 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the Constitutional Court’s dismissal of a bid by the Electoral Commission (IEC) to postpone the 2021 local government elections, and what this means for the rule of law and constitutionalism in South Africa.

Publication description

What are the risks around emigration and tax, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo conclude by looking at the latest global economic indicators — in particular — the performance of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in Europe, the United States and China.

Risk Alert | The ANC has no money

30 August 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas discuss the deteriorating financial position of the African National Congress (ANC), and what this reveals about the party’s ability to effectively govern South Africa.

Publication description

Has the ANC given up on job creation in favour of a universal basic income grant, they ask?

Endres and Jonas conclude by exploring whether U.S. policymakers will commence with “tapering” of government stimulus measures, and the impact this might have on the global economy.

Risk Alert | State Capture 2.0

22 August 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas discuss the risk of the proposed National Social Security Fund.

Publication description

Could this herald the start of a second round of State Capture, they ask?

Endres and Jonas also explore the geopolitical implications of the United States’ shambolic exit from Afghanistan and new security threats which may arise in the region.