Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | The sugar high runs out

9 December 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with disappointing third quarter GDP data and the GNU’s great growth challenge.

Publication description

President Ramaphosa ‘deals’ with a compromised cabinet minister as only he can. We then unpack the results of the Namibian elections. 

We close with political upheaval in South Korea.

Risk Alert | A new kind of minister

2 December 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with a dispute between the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition and the Competition Tribunal.

Publication description

We provide an update on Johannesburg’s water situation before turning to the weaknesses identified in South Africa’s public procurement system.

We close with a look at United States president-elect Donald Trump’s statements about tariffs and BRICS.

Risk Alert | A view from the US

25 November 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with insights from CRA director John Endres — currently in the United States — into the incoming Trump administration.

Publication description

Next are South Africa’s G20 chairmanship challenges and opportunities. We then unpack developments behind the scenes at the State Security Agency. 
 
We close with an analysis of inflation data and the South African Reserve Bank’s latest rate cut, along with rising business confidence hobbled by governance shortcomings in Gauteng.

Risk Alert | The NHI elephant in the room

18 November 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at the impending implementation of the National Health Insurance and its potential impact on the stability of the Government of National Unity.

Publication description

We comment on the boost in employment numbers between the second and third quarters of this year, coupled with some news indicating a potential upgrade of South Africa’s credit rating.

We close with a look at United States president-elect Donald Trump’s first cabinet nominations.

Risk Alert | Trump comes roaring back

11 November 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the US election victory of Donald Trump and assess what it means for South Africa.

Publication description

We comment on the latest interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and then turn to domestic politics, where the exodus of high-profile members of the EFF is continuing apace.

We move on to the spat between Eskom and the City of Johannesburg before looking at the collapse of the German coalition government and the lessons it holds for South Africa’s Government of National Unity.

Risk Alert | MTBPS highlights low-growth threat

4 November 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at the 2024 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, as well as positive signs relating to South Africa’s greylisting.

Publication description

Steel producer ArcelorMittal’s ongoing struggles in South Africa are highlighted; and Botswana elects its sixth president — the first from an opposition party in 58 years of independence.

We close with an analysis indicating the declining appetite for DEI initiatives in the world’s major corporations.