Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | SA’s vaccine roll-out a trial run for NHI

24 May 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje discuss the sophisticated lobby behind the South African government’s proposed National Health Insurance policy and the risks facing the private medical aid industry.

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The Covid-19 vaccine rollout is a trial run of NHI, they argue.

Mahlobo and Cronje also examine South Africa’s widening trade surplus. What are the long-term implications for the Rand, they ask?

Risk Alert | New fronts in the Middle East

17 May 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo highlight the risk of new fronts in the current Israeli conflict.

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Cronje and Mahlobo also assert that while inflation in the short term is a real concern for global economic prospects, the greater risk is a long-term era of deflation.

What are the implications of the contemplated changes to the wording of South Africa’s Constitutional Amendment Bill allowing expropriation without compensation (EWC), they ask?

Risk Alert | Ace in a hole – the four risks

10 May 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo highlight four risks arising from last week’s suspension of ANC Secretary General, Ace Magashule.

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What are the dangers in the proposed amendments to the Promotion of Equality and Prevention of Unfair Discrimination Act (PEPUDA), they ask?

Cronje and Mahlobo also examine whether South Africa is on the brink of a ‘third wave’ of Covid-19 infections.

Risk Alert | The growing threat to SA's banks

3 May 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo highlight the growing political pressure on South Africa’s major banks and the risk this poses to the financial sector.

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Cronje and Mahlobo also discuss the suspension of North West regional powerbroker Supra Mahumapelo from the ANC and what this signifies about the shifting power balances in the party.

At the heart of the party’s governance troubles is the policy of cadre deployment, they argue.

Risk Alert | The importance of NDZ's speech

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje discuss the importance of a recent speech given by senior ANC leader and Cabinet member, Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

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What does this speech reveal about the ANC’s approach to governance?

Mahlobo and Cronje also look at recent developments in China, the EU, Russia, the Ukraine and Afghanistan.

Risk Alert | Expropriation by stealth?

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje unpack the concepts of custodial and regulatory takings, and how these legal mechanisms could be used to advance expropriation efforts in South Africa by stealth.

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They ask: what are the ideological drivers behind these and other policies?

Mahlobo and Cronje also return to the issue of terrorism in Mozambique, and the growing threat of Jihadism in the region.