Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Expropriation by stealth?

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje unpack the concepts of custodial and regulatory takings, and how these legal mechanisms could be used to advance expropriation efforts in South Africa by stealth.

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They ask: what are the ideological drivers behind these and other policies?

Mahlobo and Cronje also return to the issue of terrorism in Mozambique, and the growing threat of Jihadism in the region.

Risk Alert | Where to for the world’s economy?

12 April 2021 - In this week's client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje focus exclusively on the broader economic outlook for the world’s key markets.

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Mahlobo and Cronje also look at the short, medium and longer-term prospects for global commodities, markets and the Dollar.

Will the Biden administration’s ‘infrastructure’ plan deliver sustainable growth?

Risk Alert | What is going on in the ANC?

5 April 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje outline three interpretations of recent events in the ANC.

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Mahlobo and Cronje also look into the likelihood of a third wave of Covid-19 infections in South Africa.

With Parliament set to push through Expropriation legislation as well as amend the Constitution, what will the government do with its new powers?

Risk Alert | New political formations on the horizon?

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje discuss the likelihood of an emergence of two new political formations from rival factions of the ANC.

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Mahlobo and Cronje also lay out three scenarios for Jacob Zuma, following the Zondo Commission’s appeal to the Constitutional Court to jail him for contempt.

Internationally, Mahlobo and Cronje look at recent events in North Korea, Turkey, Israel, China and the United States.

Risk Alert | The Public Protector and the balance of power in the ANC

22 March 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje reflect on the significance of last week’s vote in Parliament on the fitness to hold office of the Public Protector.

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What does this vote say about the balance of power within the ANC and the prospects for policy reform in the country?

Cronje and Mahlobo also dissect the ongoing delays to South Africa’s Covid-19 vaccination programme and whether this may increase the likelihood of a ‘third wave’ of infections.

Risk Alert | Three big tests for the ANC

16 March 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje identify three ‘referendums’ to determine the ANC’s potential for reform.

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Will the private sector move on vaccines amidst ongoing delays by the state, they ask?

Mahlobo and Cronje conclude by discussing the prospects for the US Dollar and the South African Rand.