Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | The tortoise and the hare

18 January 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo warn that ongoing delays in the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine may hamper South Africa’s re-integration into the global economy.

Publication description

What does the re-definition of beaches under the latest Lockdown regulations say about the ideological leanings of the ruling party and the competence of the government itself, they ask?

Cronje and Mahlobo also highlight recent calls by the South African Communist Party (SACP) for the government to pursue a prescribed assets programme.

Risk Alert | SA and the world in 2021

11 January 2021 - In the first Risk Alert of 2021, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo look back on their 2020 projections to determine where they got it right and where they got it wrong in what was an eventful and tumultuous year.

Publication description

Cronje and Mahlobo also identify the key trends that will shape South Africa and the world in 2021.

Risk Alert | Will SA return to hard lockdowns over the festive season?

14 December 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Nicholas Babaya dissect SA’s economic data to determine whether the post-lockdown recovery will be sustainable over the medium term.

Publication description

Will SA return to hard lockdowns over the festive season, they ask?

Mahlobo and Babaya also look at the performance of the UK and Eurozone economies following the re-introduction of lockdown restrictions.

Risk Alert | Wage freezes already beginning to thaw

7 December 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss what public sector wage negotiations reveal about South Africa’s broader policy direction.

Publication description

Are prescribed assets really off the table, or will ‘infrastructure bonds’ be used to plug the government’s expenditure gaps with private savings?

Cronje and Mahlobo also consider whether South Africa may see the reintroduction of hard lockdowns in the near future.

Risk Alert | Violence and anarchy in SA

30 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo highlight the growing risk of violence and anarchy in South Africa.

Publication description

Do the police, army and intelligence services have the capacity to counter these multiple threats?

Cronje and Mahlobo also consider the short-term global risk equation going into 2021.

Risk Alert | Austerity or reform?

23 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the botched retrenchments at the SABC and what the resultant backlash signifies about power dynamics within the government.

Publication description

As organised business groups lobby for civil service job cuts, will austerity measures strengthen anti-reform and anti-business activists within the Tripartite Alliance?

Cronje and Mahlobo conclude by turning their attention to East Asia, where a new multilateral trade agreement promises to strengthen China’s hand in the region.