Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Why Ace Magashule’s arrest won’t stop corruption in the ANC

16 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the arrest of ANC Secretary General Ace Magashule.

Publication description

Does Mr Magashule’s arrest signal a shift in the ANC’s approach to corruption within the party or will it be business as usual?

Mainstream analyst and media opinion may have misread last week’s by-election results and what these signify for the status of the major parties.

Cronje and Mahlobo also review a number of global flashpoints including nuclear capabilities in Iran, the further capitulation of Hong Kong to Beijing, and tensions within Boris Johnson’s government over a UK-EU Brexit deal.

Risk Alert | Which way will the Rand go?

9 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo give their view on the Rand and whether there is an upside risk in the currency strengthening.

Publication description

What is going on with Covid-19 in Europe and America and what does this mean for the global economy?

As a new era begins in America, how will markets and business react to the new balance of power?

Risk Alert | How accurate are Treasury forecasts?

2 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo analyse the growth, debt and deficit projections presented by the Finance Minister at last week’s mini-budget.

Publication description

In the absence of structural reform, what are the risks associated with the government’s current fiscal trajectory?

Cronje and Mahlobo also look abroad to renewed Covid-19 risks in Europe as well as this week’s election in America.

Risk Alert | Who will win the race in America?

26 October 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo draw on the CRA’s electoral tracker to determine who is most likely to win the US presidential election on 3 November.

Publication description

While Mr Biden still appears well ahead in the electoral college vote, several swing states could tip the balance in favour of Mr Trump.

On the domestic front, Cronje and Mahlobo look ahead to this week’s interim budget speech and present the CRA’s growth estimates for the medium term.

Risk Alert | Quackery in the Union Buildings

19 October 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo highlight how proponents of ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ appear to be influencing the economic policy agenda in the Union Buildings.

Publication description

A slightly reworked Expropriation Bill opens the door to expropriation without compensation across various asset classes, including (but not limited to) land.

The IMF has revised its global growth estimates upwards, while India forges ahead with long-awaited reforms.

Risk Alert | Real reform or simply good PR?

12 October 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss recent attempts by the ANC government to swing the narrative on corruption and policy reform.

Publication description

Is the power of trade unions in South Africa on the decline following last week's failed attempt at a national strike?

Will Joe Biden sustain his lead in the build-up to next month's US presidential election?