Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | The risk of unemployment

5 October 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo explore the complicated nature of South Africa’s official unemployment statistics.

Publication description

What is the risk of the growing unemployment problem to the ANC government and the country as a whole?

While some moves are being made to assuage public opinion on corruption in the ANC, Cronje and Mahlobo caution against being distracted by what they term ‘political rabbits.’

Risk Alert | SAA handling indicative of broader policy reform outlook

28 September 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the government’s retreat from its assurance that it would not provide bailout financing for SAA, suggesting that this is a useful measure of broader prospects for policy reform.

Publication description

Cronje and Mahlobo also warn that fears of second wave Covid-19 infections in Europe might rattle markets and policy makers.

Who will emerge victorious in the US Presidential race?

Risk Alert | SA compares poorly to global peers

14 September 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje compare South Africa’s 2020 growth and deficit projections to the forecasts of other emerging markets.

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Risk Alert | ANC retreats from SARB nationalisation, prescribed assets

21 September 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the ANC’s strategic retreat from Reserve Bank nationalisation and prescribed assets.

Publication description

Cronje and Mahlobo argue that these risks may be delayed, but not entirely removed.

Will there be peace and stability in the Middle East following the normalisation of various Arab countries’ ties with Israel?

Risk Alert | 5 ways ANC cadres could avoid corruption charges

7 September 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo argue that mainstream analysts may have misread the ANC’s supposedly tougher stance on corruption.

Publication description

Cronje and Mahlobo outline five ways in which ANC members implicated in corruption could avoid having to ‘step aside’ from their positions.

Although the global recovery continues, there are a variety of indicators that suggest the world is entering a more erratic recovery phase.

Risk Alert | Corruption an existential threat to the ANC

31 August 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo look at the ANC’s debilitating corruption dilemma.

Publication description

Will there be a more aggressive approach from President Ramaphosa in tackling corruption?

In lieu of prosecutions, can internal disciplinary processes succeed, given how widespread corruption is within the National Executive of the party?

These and other key questions are discussed against the backdrop of the ANC’s deep and persistent factional divisions.