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Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Corruption an existential threat to the ANC

31 August 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo look at the ANC’s debilitating corruption dilemma.

Publication description

Will there be a more aggressive approach from President Ramaphosa in tackling corruption?

In lieu of prosecutions, can internal disciplinary processes succeed, given how widespread corruption is within the National Executive of the party?

These and other key questions are discussed against the backdrop of the ANC’s deep and persistent factional divisions.

Risk Alert | Terrorism in Africa: is SA under threat?

24 August 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the growing threat of Salafi-jihadisim in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Publication description

Will South Africa's security be threatened by terrorism over the medium-term as a consequence?

Despite assurances of party leaders, the ANC remains committed to prescribed assets in South Africa, and we explore the ideological drivers behind this.

Risk Alert | Has SA really passed its Covid-19 peak?

17 August 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss a new trend in South Africa’s Covid-19 data: sharply decreasing testing numbers.

Publication description

As belated attempts are made to reopen the economy, has South Africa really passed its peak, as we have confidently argued over the last two weeks?

Also assessed is the track record of Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party nominee for Vice President of the United States.

Risk Alert | Will Tito Mboweni deliver another Budget speech?

10 August 2020 - In this week's Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje discusses rumours of the departure of South Africa’s finance minister, Tito Mboweni.

Publication description

Dr Cronje also reveals the underlying reasons for the recent turning of public opinion against the ANC government.

Finally, Dr Cronje contemplates the veracity of 'Second Wave' fears, and the implications for the nascent global economic recovery.

Risk Alert | Has SA reached its Covid-19 peak?

This week, Dr Frans Cronje argues that Covid-19 infections have already peaked in South Africa, which could herald rapid economic and social reopening into the spring.

Publication description

The shrinking tax base and growing public expenditure heightens the possibility of the country falling into a debt trap, he says.

Dr Cronje also assesses the validity of the ‘Second Wave’ thesis and the consequences for the global economy.

Risk Alert | Can IMF funding lead to policy reform?

27 July 2020 − This week, Dr Frans Cronje discusses the policy and ideological significance of soon-to-be-announced IMF funding for South Africa in the midst of the country’s growing fiscal crisis and governance failures.

Publication description

On the international front, Dr Cronje assesses the purported ‘second wave’ of Covid-19 infections in the US and Europe, as well as the ongoing tit-for-tat posturing between the US and China.