Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | GNU partners divided over foreign policy

28 October 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin by looking at the latest squabbles in the Government of National Unity, the members of which have different views on what SA’s foreign policy stance should be.

Publication description

We then review the latest inflation numbers and what they mean for the economy and public finances. Thereafter we assess the implications of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, a pending EU import tariff on carbon-intensive products.

We close with a comment on the Mozambican election result.

Risk Alert | Red berets in trouble

21 October 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at the rapidly declining fortunes of the Economic Freedom Fighters in the aftermath of the 2024 election.

There are currently no items in this folder.

Risk Alert | Early tremors signalling a seismic shift?

14 October 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with positive signs of a possible broader shift in government rhetoric, policy, and legislation.

Publication description

Next, the City of Tshwane has a new mayor. Thereafter we continue with our recent analysis of water infrastructure challenges in Gauteng, as well as detection of cholera in sections of the Harts and lower Vaal Rivers.

We close with a look at the Starmer administration's rocky start.

Risk Alert | 100 days of the GNU

7 October 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin by assessing the Government of National Unity at the 100-day mark, followed by key takeaways from the Social Research Foundation’s latest survey.

Publication description

We then analyse the relationship between organised business and government, and the associated risks thereof, before pointing out some positive signals from the manufacturing sector.

In our penultimate section, we highlight the risk of potential upcoming labour strikes and disruptions, before closing with a look at water supply challenges in eThekwini.

The GNU’s Tshwane stress test

In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the ousting of Cilliers Brink as Tshwane mayor, with potential ructions for the GNU.

Publication description

Next, we examine the state of ActionSA and its prospects, before turning to Panyaza Lesufi’s moves in Gauteng.

Thereafter we unpack Eskom’s latest tariff increase application, before closing with a look at the latest developments between Israel and Hezbollah.

Risk Alert | Taps run dry

23 September 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with a review of the increasingly tense water situation in Gauteng.

Publication description

We then discuss the latest interest rate moves in the US and South Africa before moving to news about improving consumer confidence in South Africa.

We close with a look at China’s stuttering economic growth.