Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | A not-so-red line in the sand

16 September 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we flag the challenges plaguing South Africa’s Government of National Unity.

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We then discuss South Africa’s creditworthiness, in the midst of an apparent conflict between judicial agencies in the country.

We close with a comment on the upcoming elections in the United States.

A light at the end of Transnet’s tunnel

9 September 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight some early signs of improvement at Transnet, South Africa’s state-owned logistics company.

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We then discuss business confidence and fixed investment levels in South Africa, and the implications of last week’s Forum on China-Africa Co-operation in Beijing.

We close with a comment on Volkswagen’s challenges in Germany.

Risk Alert | A GNU Test

2 September 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the corruption hydra confronting the Government of National Unity, as well as the opposition’s opportunity in this regard.

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Next, we unpack the latest crime statistics. The parlous state of local government management and finances follows.

We close with a look at the links between constrained municipal finances, rate increases, and a higher number of service delivery protests.

Risk Alert | Joburg’s new old mayor

26 August 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we note that even with a new mayor, there will be more of the same for Johannesburg residents, while political changes in Tshwane could be afoot.

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The risk posed by the National Health Insurance is not only to the economy, but the Government of National Unity itself, we warn.

We close with a look at domestic and international interest rate cycles.

Risk Alert | The Joburg political carousel keeps spinning

19 August 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the ongoing political machinations in the country’s economic heartland.

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Next, changes in the leadership structures of the MK Party and the EFF reflect broader shifts in the political left. We then turn to early signs of a change in the organised business-government relationship.

We close with a look at South Africa’s ticking unemployment time bomb.

Risk Alert | A wobbly GNU in the Western Cape

12 August 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at political ructions in the Western Cape, with possible ripple effects at the national level.

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Tensions within uMkhonto weSizwe come to the fore, highlighting the party’s lack of structure and coherence.

We close with a look at an RMB report assessing the investment attractiveness of 31 African countries, and emerging global market jitters.