Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | GNU off to a rocky start

23 June 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the tensions around the formation of a Government of National Unity, with key players haggling over the inclusion of additional partners.

Publication description

Municipal by-elections in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape help to gauge the temperature of South Africa’s political landscape, while setting the tone for the 2026 local government polls.

We close with a view from Washington — about South Africa’s foreign relations stance — and the impact this may have on future relations with the United States.

Risk Alert | The Rampant Centre

17 June 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with the composition of South Africa’s new national government, its risks, and the opportunities from which it and the country can benefit.

Publication description

Next, we examine the state of the country’s ports.

We close with a look at elections in the European Union.

Risk Alert | GNU: Government of National Uncertainty

10 June 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with the latest on the possible composition of South Africa's next government.

Publication description

Next, we look at GDP numbers and the economy's performance thus far in 2024. We then turn to the temptation for future governments to open wide the spending taps.

Thereafter, we analyse the Indian election results.

We close with what is possibly the start of an interest rate-cut cycle in the G7.

Risk Alert | SA’s seismic elections

3 June 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we assess South Africa’s 2024 national and provincial election results, zooming in on uMkhonto weSizwe Party’s latest moves.

Publication description

The concerns of organised business regarding coalition arrangements come to the fore, including an analysis of the South African Reserve Bank’s latest rates decision.

We close with a look at the SANDF’s ongoing operations in the DRC, and Donald Trump’s legal woes in the United States.

Risk Alert | South Africa heads to the polls

27 May 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin by discussing last minute shifts in the political landscape leading up to South Africa’s national and provincial elections.

Publication description

We also discuss the last customary polling update before the election on Wednesday 29 May.

Next, we look at the Reserve Bank’s latest release on the SA business cycle. In the UK, the British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has called for a general election on 4 July 2024.

Risk Alert | Gauteng and KZN: Coalition Country

20 May 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with the now customary polling update ahead of the elections.

Publication description

We highlight the decision of former President Mbeki not to continue campaigning for the ANC, assess the loadshedding outlook, and comment on President Ramaphosa’s signing of the controversial NHI Bill before reviewing the latest unemployment statistics.

We close with a look at the South African armed forces – and the risk of terror attacks in South Africa.