Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | A workmanlike budget

26 February 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we assess the 2024 Budget speech, highlighting South Africa’s runaway debt levels and the risks for the governing party’s electoral prospects.

Publication description

We warn of a new public procurement law currently before the National Council of Provinces, before turning to the latest unemployment numbers.

In closing, we share an update on the struggling Chinese property market and its impact on debt sustainability and consumer confidence, as well as the wider implications for South Africa.

Risk Alert | Beware the Ides of March

19 February 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the ANC's lack of effective strategy against its opponents ahead of this year's national and provincial polls.

Publication description

We highlight the ramifications of the ruling party's cadre deployment policy, including the Competition Commission's apparent dabbling in aggressive activism.

In closing, we unpack South Africa’s declining fixed investment levels, as well as the events impacting the Bank of Japan's plans to raise interest rates.

Risk Alert | Polls detect a political tremor

12 February 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest batch of political party support polling, highlighting negative signs for the ANC in the upcoming election.

Publication description

A review of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s latest State of the Nation Address follows, with a report from the CRA’s Mlondi Mdluli on the Mining Indaba held recently in Cape Town.

In closing, we unpack South Africa’s decision to lead a Democratic Republic of Congo peacekeeping mission, and the latest on United States-South Africa bilateral relations.

Risk Alert | Seeking a scapegoat

05 February 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight the stratagems deployed by the African National Congress to extend its hold on power, in the run up to the 2024 elections.

Publication description

A review of South Africa’s latest corruption ranking features, including the International Monetary Fund’s downward revision of South Africa’s growth prospects.

In closing, we unpack the turmoil in China’s property market and the possible trajectory of interest rates in the United States.

Risk Alert | The ANC's magical money tree

22 January 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the ANC’s apparently successful attempt to resolve its financial woes in time for this year’s national and provincial polls.

Publication description

A freight train collision on the Richards Bay coal line is assessed, highlighting the implications for South Africa’s infrastructural and economic integrity.

We close with a note on private actors possibly holding government entities accountable through the courts, as well as the challenges besetting China’s economy.

Risk Alert | Operation ‘Save the ANC’

08 January 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we assess the latest developments within the governing African National Congress, highlighting the possible consequences for the 2024 election.

Publication description

The most recent Eskom data comes into focus, in the midst of poor management of the entity, and concerning signs for the year ahead.

We close with a view of global trade disruptions in the Red Sea, and the forthcoming Taiwanese elections scheduled for 13 January.