Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Job numbers uptick

30 October 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss some positive news from South Africa’s labour market.

Publication description

Some recent polling data on political party support features, followed by an International Monetary Fund warning about sub-Saharan food security.

We close with an update on the state of preparedness of South Africa’s military, as well as imminent changes to South African education law.

Risk Alert | Playing with fire

23 October 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with new polling from the Brenthurst Foundation, with support for the ANC nationally registering at 41%.

Publication description

Next, we turn to foreign policy, and Minister Pandor’s Hamas phone call. Thereafter we analyse the latest inflation data for South Africa.

We close by unpacking the SARB’s second Monetary Policy Review for 2023, as well as the prospects for reform over the short-term.

Risk Alert | Executive flight

17 October 2023 – In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the departure of executives from key State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) — Eskom and Transnet — amid hints at imminent private sector involvement in the running of some parastatals.

Publication description

The latest growth outlook from the International Monetary Fund comes into focus, including up-to-date industry indicators for South Africa.

We close with the latest on South Africa’s fiscal state, and what new inflation data from the United States suggests about the Federal Reserve’s next move on rates.

Risk Alert | Opting for overseas

09 October 2023 – In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with a survey of university students which shows that alarming numbers want to emigrate.

Publication description

An assessment of the latest World Bank growth forecasts for South Africa and the region follows, including the domestic impact of developments in key global bond markets.

We close with a look at the implications of the attack on Israel launched by Hamas on Saturday.

Risk Alert | Crime turns red hot

02 October 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we provide an update on crime in South Africa and how it relates to the weakening of the South African state.

Publication description

A brief overview of the latest inflation-related data features, as well as the impact of the potential collapse of Transnet.

We close with a look at South Africa-United States relations, and the Chinese real estate market.

Risk Alert | Taps run dry

26 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we flag the looming water crisis in South Africa’s major urban areas, compounded by financial and infrastructural challenges in municipalities.

Publication description

South Africa’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) prospects come into focus, as concerns about the country’s broader foreign policy stance persist.

We close with a look at the South African Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the repo rate, amid unease about inflation across the globe.