Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Budget battle looms

18 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest weekly system status report from Eskom, and present the CRA’s electricity outage scenarios for the year ahead.

Publication description

South Africa’s messy fiscal landscape takes centre stage — including the implications for South Africa’s political and social landscape — of mounting stakeholder resistance to the Treasury’s proposed approach to budgetary cuts.

We close with a look at the possibility of a German economic downturn amid complex relations with China, while highlighting the missed opportunity for South Africa to position itself as a preferred investment destination.

Risk Alert | Eskom: maintenance deficit bites back

11 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look into the latest bout of Stage 6 loadshedding and unpack South Africa’s 0.6% quarter-on-quarter economic growth rate for Q2 2023.

Publication description

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s comments on the latest fiscal figures come into the spotlight, as well as the possible implications of the global risk-off environment for investment in South Africa.

We close with a look at the draft General Laws Intelligence Amendment Bill and its possible impact on religious and non-governmental organisations.

Risk Alert | Deficit days

04 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the rapid deterioration in public finances, and what it means for expensive new government projects such as the National Health Insurance.

Publication description

The state of Transnet comes into focus, including a surprising but welcome comment on cadre deployment from the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana.

We close with a note on the latest inflation figures, as well as a story about fed-up ratepayers in the Westville area of the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality.

Risk Alert | Inflation ticks lower

28 August 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest inflation data, and the possible negative reputational effects of the findings in the South African Reserve Bank’s Phala Phala report.

Publication description

We reiterate the weak state of the South African National Defence Force, and the implications — on South Africa’s risk premium — of the rising cost of government bonds.

We close with an analysis of the current loadshedding status, as well as the prospects for South Africa in a bigger BRICS bloc.

Risk Alert | Moonshot slingshot

21 August 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the pre-election agreement signed by seven opposition parties in a bid to unseat the African National Congress (ANC) in 2024, and the likely future of coalitions in the country.

Publication description

The government’s apparent scuppering of reform in key areas of the South African economy is also highlighted, including the impact of administrative and cost burdens on investment.

We close with a look at what China’s economic headwinds and the upcoming polls in Zimbabwe mean for South Africa.

Risk Alert | Rule of law? Zuma walks, taxis fold

14 Aug 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with an analysis of the recent taxi strike in Cape Town and the release of former president Jacob Zuma.

Publication description

Next, we examine renewed talks of a possible grand coalition between the ANC and DA.

Thereafter, we draw attention to a proposal aimed at imposing race-based procurement rules on, amongst others, retirement homes and sectional title housing complexes.

In our penultimate section, new data from Nedbank illustrate the pressure on South Africa’s middle class.

We conclude with an analysis of the state of mining, and how a struggling Chinese economy will impact South Africa.