Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Taps run dry

26 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we flag the looming water crisis in South Africa’s major urban areas, compounded by financial and infrastructural challenges in municipalities.

Publication description

South Africa’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) prospects come into focus, as concerns about the country’s broader foreign policy stance persist.

We close with a look at the South African Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the repo rate, amid unease about inflation across the globe.

Risk Alert | Budget battle looms

18 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest weekly system status report from Eskom, and present the CRA’s electricity outage scenarios for the year ahead.

Publication description

South Africa’s messy fiscal landscape takes centre stage — including the implications for South Africa’s political and social landscape — of mounting stakeholder resistance to the Treasury’s proposed approach to budgetary cuts.

We close with a look at the possibility of a German economic downturn amid complex relations with China, while highlighting the missed opportunity for South Africa to position itself as a preferred investment destination.

Risk Alert | Eskom: maintenance deficit bites back

11 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look into the latest bout of Stage 6 loadshedding and unpack South Africa’s 0.6% quarter-on-quarter economic growth rate for Q2 2023.

Publication description

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s comments on the latest fiscal figures come into the spotlight, as well as the possible implications of the global risk-off environment for investment in South Africa.

We close with a look at the draft General Laws Intelligence Amendment Bill and its possible impact on religious and non-governmental organisations.

Risk Alert | Deficit days

04 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the rapid deterioration in public finances, and what it means for expensive new government projects such as the National Health Insurance.

Publication description

The state of Transnet comes into focus, including a surprising but welcome comment on cadre deployment from the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana.

We close with a note on the latest inflation figures, as well as a story about fed-up ratepayers in the Westville area of the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality.

Risk Alert | Inflation ticks lower

28 August 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest inflation data, and the possible negative reputational effects of the findings in the South African Reserve Bank’s Phala Phala report.

Publication description

We reiterate the weak state of the South African National Defence Force, and the implications — on South Africa’s risk premium — of the rising cost of government bonds.

We close with an analysis of the current loadshedding status, as well as the prospects for South Africa in a bigger BRICS bloc.

Risk Alert | Moonshot slingshot

21 August 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the pre-election agreement signed by seven opposition parties in a bid to unseat the African National Congress (ANC) in 2024, and the likely future of coalitions in the country.

Publication description

The government’s apparent scuppering of reform in key areas of the South African economy is also highlighted, including the impact of administrative and cost burdens on investment.

We close with a look at what China’s economic headwinds and the upcoming polls in Zimbabwe mean for South Africa.