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Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Rule of law? Zuma walks, taxis fold

14 Aug 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with an analysis of the recent taxi strike in Cape Town and the release of former president Jacob Zuma.

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Next, we examine renewed talks of a possible grand coalition between the ANC and DA.

Thereafter, we draw attention to a proposal aimed at imposing race-based procurement rules on, amongst others, retirement homes and sectional title housing complexes.

In our penultimate section, new data from Nedbank illustrate the pressure on South Africa’s middle class.

We conclude with an analysis of the state of mining, and how a struggling Chinese economy will impact South Africa.

Risk Alert | Global Risk-Off Sentiment Becoming Entrenched

7 Aug 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with a look at South Africa's shifting international trade numbers before turning to some observations on South Africa's business conditions.

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We continue with the downgrade of the United States sovereign credit rating before closing with an update on the turmoil in West Africa and the coup of Niger.

Risk Alert | Business to the rescue?

31 July 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight the latest pledge by chief executives of big business to help solve South Africa’s economic woes, questioning whether partnerships with the state are viable.

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We also assess the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), as well as the steep decline of the country’s manufacturing industry.

We close by highlighting the diminishing trust in the government, and the global trends relating to interest rate hikes.

Risk Alert | SA’s diplomatic close shave

24 July 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the diplomatic close shave for the South African government, and an analysis of the latest by-election results.

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We also take a deep dive into the latest inflation data, as well as the decision by the South African Reserve Bank to pause (for now) its rate hike cycle.

Finally, we highlight continued corporate frustration with the government — and the implications for business — of the underperformance of Eskom and Transnet.

Risk Alert | Eskom: out in the cold

17 July 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with a look at Eskom’s latest troubles, and the recent spate of truck attacks on South Africa’s major freeways.

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We then highlight former president Jacob Zuma’s legal troubles, as well as concerns relating to disruptions at the Port of Richard’s Bay.

We close with an assessment of ‘opposition coalition’ developments in KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the latest apparent tensions in the top structures of the African National Congress.

Risk Alert | Visa holdups

11 July 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight a stark warning from a key trading partner on South Africa’s work visa processes, and the pressures afflicting the country’s food producers.

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We then unpack the country’s latest unemployment data, as well as the implications of rising policy uncertainty.

We close with an assessment of the Reserve Bank’s limitations in arresting inflation, and the precarious financial position of the South African Broadcasting Corporation.